Macroeconomic modelling to support climate resilient economic development

23/02/2022 - 285 Views

Macroeconomic modelling capacities and understanding of climate risks have been enhanced through events conducted by the global programme Policy Advice for Climate Resilient Economic Development (CRED). The CRED project supports Vietnam in integrating climate risk into macroeconomic modelling to foster climate resilient economic development. As part of the project, the Dynamic General Equilibrium Model for Climate Resilient Economic Development (DGE-CRED) model has been developed together with the Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM) and Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) to assess future climate change impacts on Vietnam’s national economy and identify effective adaptation options. A series of trainings and workshops have been conducted to ensure the national ownership and application of the model.

 

Following the first training on the framework of the Dynamic General Equilibrium Model for Climate Resilient Economic Development (DGE-CRED) model in 2020, an additional course was held in October 2021 to provide participants with basic skills in the MATLAB software and the Dynare platform, which are necessary to run the DGE-CRED model. This onsite 5-day course attracted about 10 participants from governmental agencies and research institutes.

 

Directly after the MATLAB training, the second DGE-CRED modelling 5-day training course took place in November 2021. This training course was conducted as a hybrid event with IWH trainers participating online, while national experts were onsite together with the participants. The training included 5 core sessions: (i) Dynamic General Equilibrium Model for Climate Resilient Economic Development, Climate Change Scenarios in (ii) Agriculture, (iii) Forestry, (iv) Housing (Construction), and (v) Transport. As a result, the participants significantly improved their knowledge and understanding of computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling and particularly DGE-CRED model simulations.

 

Following these trainings, a 3rd course is scheduled to take place in April 2022 with contents related to sector extension and scenarios analysis.

 

In December 2021, a technical workshop was held together with CIEM on the importance of climate risk assessments and cost-benefit analyses for infrastructure investment decisions. The workshop took place online and attracted about 40 participants from NGOs, governmental organizations, research institutes and universities. Workshop content was about vulnerability and risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis for infrastructures (sluice gate, dike and drainage systems) at project level with a potential to scale up at the provincial and regional level. The workshop presented results of climate risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis of different engineering measures for Cai Lon-Cai Be case study, the largest sluice gate in the Mekong River Delta. Scaling up infrastructure investments at provincial and regional levels are assessed in the research “Economic analysis of adaptation measures for road and dyke systems using DGE-CRED model” conducted by the economists from the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).

 

 

 

Contact 

(Ms.) Chi Kim Dang, National Advisor GIZ Vietnam

chi.dang@giz.de

Global Programme “Policy Advice for Climate Resilient Economic Development” (CRED)

 

For further information please visit:

» CRED IKI Website

» CRED Factsheet

» CRED Project Brief

 

 


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